Afet Durumları için Acil Tıp Merkezlerinin Yerleşim Planlaması Tıbbi Malzeme Envanter Yönetimi ve Yaralı Taşıma Sistemi Tasarımı İstanbul Depremi için Pilot Uygulama

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Satoğlu Ş. I. (Executive), Kapukaya E. N., Çağlayan N., Öksüz M. K.

Project Supported by Higher Education Institutions, 2019 - 2021

  • Project Type: Project Supported by Higher Education Institutions
  • Begin Date: October 2019
  • End Date: June 2021

Project Abstract

In this project, a two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed to determine the number and location of "Temporary Medical Centers" (Field Hospitals) that should be established after the disaster, under uncertain conditions, in an optimum manner. The aim is to minimize the sum of the temporary medical center establishment cost and the expected casualty transportation cost before the disaster. In this model, uncertainty regarding the disaster, damage to hospitals and damage to roads are represented in the model in scenarios. In the second part of the project, the studies were conducted in two parts: the decision support tool proposal for the casualty transport process and the development of a mathematical model that can help decision-makers for the ambulance allocation and direction by converting the data obtained according to this system into information. In the first part of the study, a data-based decision support tool based on Radio Frequency Identification technology (RFID) is proposed to provide real-time tracking of casualties and hospital capacities.Simulation analysis was conducted for different scenarios by considering four two-level factors: triage type, hospital selection decision, injured health score priority and number of ambulances of the injured who were transferred to hospitals. Based on the simulation results, the factors affecting performance criteria at a statistically significant level were determined by factor analysis. Factor analysis results create a bridge between simulation analysis and the mathematical model. In the third part of the project, a multi-objective two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed according to the determined important factors. With the developed mathematical programming model, it was determined which neighborhoods the existing emergency aid stations should cover and how many existing ambulances should be located in these centers before the disaster, and also inferences were made regarding the additional ambulance needs in different scenarios after the disaster. In the mathematical model, the scenarios were solved for Kartal District of Istanbul according for the nine scenarios created according to the reports of the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (2002) and the Earthquake and Ground Investigation Directorate (DEZİM) (2018).