Impacts of climate change on the seasonality of low flows in 134 catchments in the River Rhine basin using an ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate simulations


Demirel M. C. , BOOIJ M. J. , HOEKSTRA A. Y.

HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, vol.17, no.10, pp.4241-4257, 2013 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 17 Issue: 10
  • Publication Date: 2013
  • Doi Number: 10.5194/hess-17-4241-2013
  • Title of Journal : HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
  • Page Numbers: pp.4241-4257

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on the seasonality of low flows were analysed for 134 sub-catchments covering the River Rhine basin upstream of the Dutch-German border. Three seasonality indices for low flows were estimated, namely the seasonality ratio (SR), weighted mean occurrence day (WMOD) and weighted persistence (WP). These indices are related to the discharge regime, timing and variability in timing of low flow events respectively. The three indices were estimated from: (1) observed low flows; (2) simulated low flows by the semi-distributed HBV model using observed climate as input; (3) simulated low flows using simulated inputs from seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the current climate (1964-2007); (4) simulated low flows using simulated inputs from seven combinations of GCMs and RCMs for the future climate (2063-2098) including three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. These four cases were compared to assess the effects of the hydrological model, forcing by different climate models and different emission scenarios on the three indices.