Identification of appropriate lags and temporal resolutions for low flow indicators in the River Rhine to forecast low flows with different lead times


Demirel M. C., BOOIJ M. J., HOEKSTRA A. Y.

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, cilt.27, sa.19, ss.2742-2758, 2013 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 27 Sayı: 19
  • Basım Tarihi: 2013
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1002/hyp.9402
  • Dergi Adı: HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.2742-2758
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: River Rhine, low flows, temporal resolution, lag, appropriate modelling, correlation analysis, CLIMATE-CHANGE, SCALE, PRECIPITATION, PATTERNS, DROUGHT, MODELS, VARIABILITY, RAINFALL, BASINS, SPACE
  • İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

The aim of this paper is to assess the relative importance of low flow indicators for the River Rhine and to identify their appropriate temporal lag and resolution. This is done in the context of low flow forecasting with lead times of 14 and 90 days. First, the Rhine basin is subdivided into seven sub-basins. By considering the dominant processes in the sub-basins, five low flow indicators were selected: precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, groundwater storage, snow storage and lake storage. Correlation analysis was then carried out to determine the relationship between observed low flows and preselected indicators with varying lags (days) and temporal resolutions (from 1 day to 7 months). The results show that the most important low flow indicators in the Alpine sub-basins for forecasts with a lead time of 14 days are potential evapotranspiration with a large lag and temporal resolution, and lake levels with a small lag and temporal resolution. In the other sub-basins groundwater levels with a small lag and temporal resolution are important in addition to potential evapotranspiration with a large lag and temporal resolution. The picture is slightly different for forecasts with a lead time of 90 days. The snow storage in the Alpine sub-basins and the precipitation in the other sub-basins also become relevant for low flows. Consequently, the most important low flow indicators in the Alpine sub-basins for forecasts with a lead time of 90 days are potential evapotranspiration with a large lag and temporal resolution, lake levels with a small lag and temporal resolution and snow storage with a small lag and large temporal resolution. The resultant correlation maps provide appropriate lags and temporal resolutions for indicators to forecast low flows in the River Rhine with different lead times. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.