A problem-structuring model for analyzing transportation-environment relationships


Ulengin F., Kabak Ö., Onsel S., ULENGIN B., AKTAS E.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, vol.200, no.3, pp.844-859, 2010 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 200 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2010
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.ejor.2009.01.023
  • Journal Name: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.844-859
  • Keywords: Problem structuring, Transportation, Environment, Cognitive maps, Structural equation modeling, Scenario analysis, DECISION-SUPPORT-SYSTEM, PERFORMANCE EVALUATION, BAYESIAN NETWORKS, COGNITIVE MAPS, POLICIES, TURKEY
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This study discusses a decision support framework that guides policy makers in their strategic transportation related decisions by using multi-methodology. For this purpose, a methodology for analyzing the effects of transportation policies on environment, society, economy, and energy is proposed. In the proposed methodology, a three-stage problem structuring model is developed. Initially, experts' opinions are structured by using a cognitive map to determine the relationships between transportation and environmental concepts. Then a Structural equation model (SEM) is constructed, based on the cognitive map, to quantify the relations among external transportation and environmental factors. Finally the results of the SEM model are used to evaluate the consequences of possible policies via scenario analysis. In this paper a pilot study that covers only one module of the whole framework, namely transportation-environment interaction module, is conducted to present the applicability and usefulness of the methodology. This pilot study also reveals the impacts of transportation policies on the environment. To achieve a sustainable transportation system, the extent of the relationships between transportation and the environment must be considered. The World Development Indicators developed by the World Bank are used for this purpose. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.