Modeling land use/land cover conversion risk

ERDOĞAN M. A. , Eşbah Tunçay H. , BERBEROĞLU S.

A/Z ITU Journal of the Faculty of Architecture, vol.10, no.2, pp.67-80, 2013 (Refereed Journals of Other Institutions) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 10 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2013
  • Title of Journal : A/Z ITU Journal of the Faculty of Architecture
  • Page Numbers: pp.67-80
  • Keywords: Big Meander Basin, Land use/cover change, Risk modeling


Unsustainable conversions of land use and cover constitute the biggest threats to world's ecosystems, therefore, understanding the past and future changes are critical in sustainable landscape planning. This study aims to generate a risk model of land use/land cover (LULC) conversions at a watershed scale. Big Meander Basin in Aegean Region of Turkey is the case study area. There are four analytical steps in the present work; (i) detecting LULC change in the basin between 1986 and 2002, (ii) generating a risk map of LULC conversions until 2002 (iii) determining the probable LULC conversions in the future, and (iv) generating an inclusive risk map by overlaying the up to date and probable LULC conversion risk maps. The results of the classifications demonstrated an increase of Water surfaces, Maquis, Fruit Orchards, Urban areas, and Bare soil areas. Meanwhile, Croplands and Forests decreased. The most critical conversions occurred in the form of agricultural intensification on wetland ecosystems. Also, the diminishing quality in the vegetation structure is requiring attention. LULC conversion risk analysis not only displayed the areas with high change risk but also displayed the priority areas for the protection, restoration and planning. Thus, this information can be used for generating more effective land use decisions especially at the urban rural interface.