A fuzzy extended DELPHI method for adjustment of statistical time series prediction: An empirical study on dry bulk freight market case

Duru O., Bulut E., Yoshida S.

EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS, vol.39, no.1, pp.840-848, 2012 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 39 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2012
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.07.082
  • Journal Name: EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.840-848
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This paper investigates the forecasting accuracy of fuzzy extended group decisions in the adjustment of statistical benchmark results. DELPHI is a frequently used method for implementing accurate group consensus decisions. The concept of consensus is subject to expert characteristics and it is sometimes ensured by a facilitator's judgment. Fuzzy set theory deals with uncertain environments and has been adapted for DELPHI, called fuzzy-DELPHI (FD). The present paper extends the recent literature via an implementation of FD for the adjustment of statistical predictions. We propose a fuzzy-DELPHI adjustment process for improvement of accuracy and introduced an empirical study to illustrate its performance in the validation of adjustments of statistical forecasts in the dry bulk shipping index. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.