Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
8th Atmospheric Sciences Symposium, İstanbul, Türkiye, 1 - 04 Kasım 2017, ss.435-441
Weather forecasting is quite
challenging and significant issue since atmosphere is very hard to determine
due to its dynamical and nonlinear structure. Despite the complexity of
atmosphere, there are several methods to overcome and achieve success in
weather forecasting like statistical and numerical weather prediction methods
(NWP). Furthermore, NWP models give much more realistic and accurate results
since it struggles with the atmospheric equations when it’s compare to the
statistical methods. In this study, WRF – ARW model with 3.8.1 edition has been
used as NWP model and its performance has been tested for Turkey. Two nested
domains have been used for performance analysis and while the resolution of
coarser domain has been set as 9 kilometers, inner domain has been set as 3
kilometers. On the other hand, Final Operational Global Analysis (FNL) data of
National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) which has 1-degree by
1-degree resolution has been used as the initial and boundary condition for
downscaling purposes. Besides, model has been runned for 4 months in 2016 and months
have been chosen as the middle month of four different season in order to
determine and investigate the seasonal dependence of model reliability.
Furthermore, automatic weather observation stations which are located in the 13
provinces where especially in the northern and middle part of Turkey has been
chosen for performance analysis of model. Consequently, two meter temperature
variable has been chosen in order to make statistical comparisons which has been
chosen as RMSE, Standart Deviation Error and Bias methods.