A novel deep learning model based on convolutional neural networks for employee churn prediction

Ozmen E. P. , Özcan T.

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 2021 (Journal Indexed in SSCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1002/for.2827
  • Title of Journal : JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
  • Keywords: classification and regression tree, CNN, deep learning, employee churn, retailing, TIME-SERIES, CLASSIFICATION, REGRESSION, ANALYTICS, TURNOVER


Employees are one of the most important resources of a company. The churn of valuable employees significantly affects a company's performance. The design of systems that predict employee churn is critical importance for companies. At this point, machine learning algorithms offer important opportunities for the diagnosis of employee churn. Nowadays, traditional classification algorithms have been replaced by deep learning models. In this study, firstly, a convolutional neural network (CNN) model was applied on a numerical data set for employee churn prediction in retailing. Later, because the data loss is too much in data transformations, a new hybrid extended convolutional decision tree model (ECDT) was proposed by improving the CNN algorithm. Finally, a novel model (ECDT-GRID) was developed by applying grid search optimization to improve the classification accuracy of ECDT. Numerical results showed that the developed ECDT-GRID model outperformed the CNN and ECDT models and basic classification algorithms in terms of classification accuracy, and this model provided an efficient methodology for prediction of employee churn.