Estimating the Modal Split Ratios of Square Visitors in the Case of Istanbul's Historical Peninsula: Evidence from Multinominal Logistic Regression Model

Turan B., Ayataç H., İNCE E. C.

JOURNAL OF URBAN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT, vol.148, no.4, 2022 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 148 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.1061/(asce)up.1943-5444.0000880
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, Geobase, ICONDA Bibliographic, INSPEC, Metadex, Political Science Complete, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Multinominal logistic regression model, Accessibility of historical squares, Modal split estimation, Historical peninsula, Urban squares, DISABLED PEOPLE, ACCESSIBILITY, WEATHER, ASSOCIATION, RIDERSHIP, MOBILITY, CHOICE
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes


The continuity of urban activities is provided by a well-oriented transportation network, making sustainable transportation systems a prominent component of sustainable urban development. Moreover, urban public areas involve squares that serve as the focal point of social life. As a result, providing efficient transportation infrastructure for communities with the help of different modes of transportation becomes a key issue to increase the accessibility levels of these squares. To clarify, urban squares serve as the focal point of social life, necessitating effective access to these squares with well integrated and different modes of transportation. Starting from this viewpoint, this article aims to identify statistically significant factors affecting mode choice behavior of visitors for their trips to the following five squares: Eminonu, cemberlitas, Sirkeci, Beyazit, and Sultanahmet, located in the historical peninsula of Istanbul. This way, the accessibility levels of these squares could be verified with regard to three modes of transportation: walking, private automobile, and public transport. According to the findings of the multinominal logistic regression model, location of home, monthly transport cost, and age are the three factors that have the highest statistically significant marginal effects on the ratios of walking, driving, and using public transport. Unlike prevailing cases in the provinces of developed countries, our findings suggest that education level is not one of the statistically significant parameters that shape the related modal split trends in Istanbul, Turkey.