Churn Detection and Prediction in Automotive Supply Industry

Karapinar H. C., Altay A., Kayakutlu G.

Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems (FedCSIS), Gdansk, Poland, 11 - 14 September 2016, vol.8, pp.1349-1354 identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Volume: 8
  • Doi Number: 10.15439/2016f245
  • City: Gdansk
  • Country: Poland
  • Page Numbers: pp.1349-1354
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Companies ha v e both large certified enterprises and small unauthorized service providers as their competitors in the automotive supply industry. As technology related industries undergo more intensive competition, churn detection and prediction become essential to be precautions about leaving customers. The literature for churn detection offers numerous statistical and intelligent methods. In this study, Artificial Neural Networks and Decision Trees are applied to detect the churn in and analyze the validity of these methods for the automotive supply industry. The problem involves both categorical and continuous numerical decision inputs which cannot simultaneously fed into Decision Trees. In this case, continuous inputs should he divided into binary categorical ones by splitting into various intervals which are called buckets. Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm is implemented for finding optimal buckets for the churn problem data. Results indicate that while both algorithms are promising, the bucket tuning for Decision Trees complicate the churn detection process.