Supply continuity in Turkish electricity distribution grid: electricity interruption cost forecasting with time series analysis and machine learning

Dindar B., Gül Ö.

ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING, vol.105, no.1, pp.43-59, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 105 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s00202-022-01639-9
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Compendex, INSPEC, DIALNET
  • Page Numbers: pp.43-59
  • Keywords: Customer interruption costs, Energy quality, Interruption costs, Machine learning, Supply continuity, Time series analysis, POWER OUTAGES, LOST LOAD, HOUSEHOLDS, SECURITY
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Problems in the supply of electrical energy affect economic and social life and cause significant economic losses. In this study, the interruption costs of customers and distribution companies in 21 distribution regions in Turkey have been calculated and forecasts for the future have been realized. The aim here is to reveal the magnitude of the interruption costs with detailed analyses and methods that can be easily applied by decision makers and to support the decision-making processes. In this direction, the costs of interruption have been calculated by indirect analytical methods. Also, it is necessary to know how the interruption costs will change in the future to consider the interruption costs in investment plans. In this study, future forecasts have been performed using time series analyses and machine learning models. Additionally, solutions have been developed to facilitate the inclusion of interruption costs in the investment plans of the decision makers. With these solutions, the number and scope of investments can be increased. Thus, supply continuity performance will be increased in countries with high cost of interruptions and the losses incurred by the stakeholders in the energy sector will be reduced.