Artificial neural network models for forecasting intermittent monthly precipitation in arid regions


Dahamsheh A., Aksoy H.

METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, cilt.16, ss.325-337, 2009 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 16 Konu: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2009
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1002/met.127
  • Dergi Adı: METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.325-337

Özet

Forecasting monthly precipitation in and regions is investigated by means of feed forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural networks (ANNs) and compared to the linear regression technique with multiple inputs (MLR). Four meteorological stations from different geographical regions in Jordan are selected. The ANNs and MLR processes are analysed based on the mean square error, relative/absolute error, determination coefficient as well as the central statistical moments such as mean, standard deviation, and minimum and maximum values. It is found that whilst on one hand the ANNs are slightly better than the MLR in forecasting the monthly total precipitation, on the other hand, both are found with to have limitations which should be improved by means of either changing the type and architecture of the ANNs or incorporating modelling tools such as Markov chains into the forecast model. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society