A multivariate model of fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (M-FILF) and multiplicative time series clustering: A model of time-varying volatility for dry cargo freight market

Duru O.

EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS, cilt.39, sa.4, ss.4135-4142, 2012 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 39 Sayı: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2012
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.09.123
  • Dergi Adı: EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.4135-4142
  • İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

The aim of this paper is to improve the fuzzy logical forecasting model (FILF) by utilizing multivariate inference and the partitioning problem for an exponentially distributed time series by using a multiplicative clustering approach. Fuzzy time series (FTS) is a growing study field in computer science and its superiority is indicated frequently. Since the conventional time series analysis requires various preconditions, the FTS framework is very useful and convenient for many problems in business practice. This paper particularly investigates pricing problems in the shipping business and price-volatility relationship is the theoretical point of the proposed approach. Both FT'S and conventional time series results are comparatively presented in the final section and superiority of the proposed method is explicitly noted. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.