Prediction of Emergency Preparedness Level On-Board Ships Using Discrete Event Simulation: the Case of Firefighting Drill

Tac B. O., Çelik M.

Transactions on Maritime Science, vol.11, no.2, 2022 (Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 11 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.7225/toms.v11.n02.008
  • Journal Name: Transactions on Maritime Science
  • Journal Indexes: Scopus
  • Keywords: Ship emergency preparedness, Firefighting drill, Discrete event simulation, Fuzzy Dematel
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

© 2022, Faculty of Maritime Studies. All rights reserved.This paper proposes a hybrid approach, including Fuzzy Dematel (FD) integrated with Discrete Event Simulation (DES), to predict emergency preparedness levels on-board ships. The FD used critical factors that affect emergency preparedness to conduct a DES based on real firefighting drill records collected from 45 merchant ships. The simulation results showed the average duration of on-board drills in ideal conditions (27.47 min.), in the worst-case scenario (51.49 min.), for Ship A (29.99 min.), and Ship B (28.12 min.). Based on the findings, recovery actions linked to the factors have been recommended to promote on-board implementation. The proposed model is of great importance to shore-based managers, allowing them to monitor the emergency preparedness level of the fleet continuously, even during pandemics. Further studies are planned to develop a remote monitoring system that would digitalize the existing response procedures in emergency situations.