Predicting the Cost Outcome of Construction Quality Problems Using Case-Based Reasoning (CBR)


Dogan N. B., Ayhan B. U., Kazar G., Saygili M., Ayozen Y. E., Tokdemir O. B.

BUILDINGS, vol.12, no.11, 2022 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 12 Issue: 11
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.3390/buildings12111946
  • Journal Name: BUILDINGS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Avery, Communication Abstracts, INSPEC, Metadex, Directory of Open Access Journals, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: predictive model, case-based reasoning, analytic hierarchy process, genetic algorithm, quality problems, DETERMINING ATTRIBUTE WEIGHTS, ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS, ESTIMATING MODEL, PROJECT, REWORK, DECISION, SUPPORT, SAFETY, MANAGEMENT, IMPACT
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Quality problems are crucial in construction projects since poor quality might lead to delays, low productivity, and cost overruns. In case preventive actions are absent, a lack of quality results in a chain of problems. As a solution, this study deals with non-conformities proactively by adopting an AI-based predictive model approach. The main objective of this study is to provide an automated solution structured on the data recording system for the adverse impacts of construction quality failures. For this purpose, we collected 2527 non-conformance reports from 59 diverse construction projects to develop a predictive model regarding the cost impact of the quality problems. The first of three stages forming the backbone of the study determines crucial attributes linked to quality problems through a literature survey and the Delphi method. Secondly, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) were used to determine the attribute weights. In the final stage, we developed models to predict the cost impacts of non-conformities, using Case-based Reasoning (CBR). We made a comparison between the developed models to select the most precise one. The results show that the performance of CBR-GA using an automated weighting model is slightly better than CBR-AHP based on a subjective weighting system, whereas the case is the opposite in standard deviation in forecasting the cost outcome of the quality failures. Using both automated and expert systems, the study forecasts the cost impact of failures and reveals the factors linked to poor record-keeping. Ultimately, we concluded that the outcome of non-conformities can be predicted and prevented using past events via the developed AI-based predictive model.