A Method for Determination of Accident Probability in the Construction Industry

Bilir S., Gürcanlı G. E.

TEKNIK DERGI, vol.29, no.4, pp.8537-8561, 2018 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 29 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2018
  • Doi Number: 10.18400/tekderg.363613
  • Journal Name: TEKNIK DERGI
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.8537-8561
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Safety issues within the construction industry have been an area of concern in almost every country. In this paper, an objective and quantitative accident probability calculation approach is proposed using 623 actual construction accidents that resulted in 681 casualties between the years 2000 and 2013. Of these accidents, the first five account for 84.1% of all fatalities and 85.4% of all injuries. In total, five construction jobs (excavation, reinforced concrete work, masonry, plastering and painting, and roof work) were the focus of the study, as they account for 70.8% of all occurrences. Probability values were calculated by using the Poisson distribution, in which accident rates and exposure values were used as distribution parameters. In an industry where accidents are recorded according to non-specific standards, it is very difficult to represent the probability of accidents within a known distribution model. The proposed approach in this paper provides an objective method to obtain probabilities by using the Poisson distribution for construction accidents.