Evaluation of the FSU synthetic superensemble performance for seasonal forecasts over the Euro-Mediterranean region

Sirdas S., Ross R. S., Krishnamurti T. N., Chakraborty A.

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, vol.59, no.1, pp.50-70, 2007 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier


This paper deals with seasonal climate forecasting using as many as 13 coupled ocean-atmosphere models. An analysis of the individual model, multimodel ensemble, and FSU synthetic superensemble (FSUSSE) climate forecasts was performed for monthly and seasonal forecasts of precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and surface air temperature over the Euro-Mediterranean region including the land areas of Europe, North Africa and the Near East, during the period 1989-2001. In the FSUSSE methodology, forecasts are obtained by a weighted combination of the individual coupled ocean-atmosphere model forecasts based on a training period. The set of 13 individual climate forecast models utilized in this research is comprised of the seven models in the European suite of DEMETER models, a suite of four Florida State University models, the Australian POAMA model and the NCAR CCM3 model.