Aggregating forecasts to obtain fuzzy demands


Kabak Ö. , Ulengin F.

8th International Conference on Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Technologies in Nuclear Science, Madrid, Spain, 21 - 24 September 2008, vol.1, pp.73-78 identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Volume: 1
  • Doi Number: 10.1142/9789812799470_0012
  • City: Madrid
  • Country: Spain
  • Page Numbers: pp.73-78

Abstract

There are several studies in the literature that assumes fuzzy demands in supply chain or production planning models but most of them do not mention about how to derive the fuzzy demands from statistical and judgmental forecasts. In this study we propose a methodology to aggregate the forecasts coming based on different sources; namely statistical methods as well as the experts judgments, and to obtain an aggregated demand forecast that is represented by a possibilistic distribution. Results of the statistical and judgmental forecasts are represented by triangular possibilistic distributions. Subsequently, those results are combined by using weights of each input forecast. An illustrative example is also provided.