A Susceptible–Infectious (SI) model with two infective stages and an endemic equilibrium


Ahmetolan S., Bilge A. H., Demirci A., Peker A.

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, vol.194, pp.19-35, 2022 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 194
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.matcom.2021.11.003
  • Journal Name: Mathematics and Computers in Simulation
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Applied Science & Technology Source, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, INSPEC, Public Affairs Index, zbMATH
  • Page Numbers: pp.19-35
  • Keywords: Epidemic models, Endemic equilibrium, Extinction, Reproduction number, Infectious Diseases, Stability
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

© 2021 International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS)The focus of this article is on the dynamics of a susceptible–infected model which consists of a susceptible group (S) and two different infectious groups (I1 and I2). Once infected, an individual becomes a member of one of these infectious groups which have different clinical forms of infection. In addition, during the progress of the illness, an infected individual in group I1 may pass to the infectious group I2 which has a higher mortality rate. The infection is deadly and it has no cure. In this study, positiveness of the solutions for the model is proved. Stability analysis of species extinction, I1-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium as well as disease-free equilibrium is studied, and it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is stable whereas all other equilibrium points are asymptotically stable for parameter ranges determined by certain inequalities. In addition, relations between the basic reproduction number of the disease and the basic reproduction number of each infectious stage are examined. Furthermore, the case where all newborns from infected mothers are also infected is analysed. For this type of vertical transmission, endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable for certain parameter ranges. Finally, a special case which refers to the disease without vital dynamics is investigated and its exact solution is obtained.