Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Evaluation of R&D Projects and A Fuzzy Trinomial Lattice Approach for Real Options

TOLGA A. Ç., Kahraman C.

3rd International Conference on Intelligent System and Knowledge Engineering, Xiamen, China, 17 - 19 November 2008, pp.418-420 identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • City: Xiamen
  • Country: China
  • Page Numbers: pp.418-420
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Project selection decisions could be thought within the strategic objectives and plans of the firm. So, strategic R&D project selection decision is very important in two ways. First, in many organizations, R&D budget represents huge investment. Second R&D projects' organizational returns are multidimensional in nature and risky in terms of projected outcome. The risky side of the selection process is calculated by real options approach. New fuzzy trinomial lattice solution method is used in real options approach. Multidimensional side of the R&D project selection process is included in the model by multi-criteria method. Another consideration is the vagueness in the evaluation process. The fuzzy AHP, which takes monetary (fuzzy real option value) and nonmonetary (capability, success probability, trends, etc) criteria into account, is used to make this selection among alternative R&D projects.