ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON Apis mellifera POPULATION DISTRIBUTION Ekolojik Niş Modelleme: Apis mellifera Popülasyon Dağılımı Üzerine Deneysel Çalışma


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Öksüzoğlu D., Aydin M.

Uludag Aricilik Dergisi, vol.22, no.1, pp.31-44, 2022 (Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 22 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.31467/uluaricilik.1075065
  • Journal Name: Uludag Aricilik Dergisi
  • Journal Indexes: Scopus, Academic Search Premier, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.31-44
  • Keywords: Apis mellifera, Bioclimatic variables, Climate change, Occurrences, PCA ecological niche modeling, Projections
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

© 2022 Uludag Aricilik Dergisi. All rights reserved.Apis mellifera is one of the species that aid in the maintenance of ecosystem diversity and spread all around the world, yet their numbers are subjected to a decline in the near future. In this study, A. mellifera species' occurrence data obtained from the United Kingdom, Netherlands, France, Germany, Zambia was studied by using the present and future projection models generated by using principal component analysis (PCA) on 19 bioclimatic variables. Regarding the future projections, the honey bee species will be significantly decreased in number in Europe, whereas in North America, the change from current to future was somewhat ambiguous. Therefore, the growth rates of the bioclimatic variables from present to the future for both Europe and North America were compared with each other to conclude the most effective bioclimatic variables on the species' occurrences. In conclusion, the most effective bioclimatic variables that caused the major decline in European clades of this species were assessed as the severity of winters, precipitation seasonality, temperature seasonality, and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter.