Public transportation trip flow modeling with generalized regression neural networks

Celikoglu H. B., CIGIZOGLU H. K.

ADVANCES IN ENGINEERING SOFTWARE, vol.38, no.2, pp.71-79, 2007 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier


Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are one of the recently explored advanced technologies, which show promise in the area of transportation engineering. The presented study comprised the employment of this seldom used ANN method, generalized regression neural network (GRNN), in comparison to both a frequently applied neural network training algorithm, feed-forward back-propagation (FFBP), and a stochastic model of auto-regressive structure for the purpose of forecasting daily trip flows, which is an essential component in demand analysis. The study is carried out under the motivation of knowing that modeling daily trips for available transportation modes will facilitate the arrangement for effective public infrastructure investments and the cited papers in the literature did not make use of and handle any comparison with GRNN method. The ANN predictions are found to be quite close to the observations as reflected in the selected performance criteria. The selected stochastic model performance is quite poor compared with ANN results. It is seen that the GRNN did not provide negative forecasts in contrast to FFBP applications. Besides, the local minima problem faced by FFBP algorithm is not encountered in GRNNs. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.