Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate

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Du H., Donat M. G., Zong S., Alexander L. V., Manzanas R., Kruger A., ...More

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.103, no.4, 2022 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 103 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0140.1
  • Journal Name: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Applied Science & Technology Source, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Artic & Antarctic Regions, CAB Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index
  • Keywords: Extreme events, Precipitation, Climate change, Climate records, Climate prediction, HEAVY-PRECIPITATION, FUTURE CHANGES, TEMPERATURE, INDEXES, TRENDS, INTENSIFICATION, 20TH-CENTURY, DURATION, RAINFALL, WEATHER
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

© 2022 American Meteorological SocietyExtreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.