A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector

Pasaoglu G., Harrison G., Jones L., Hill A., Beaudet A., Thiel C.

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, vol.104, pp.133-146, 2016 (SSCI) identifier identifier


The study presents an extensive System Dynamics simulation model, running up to 2050, employing an agent based approach and incorporating major factors that influence the technology transition in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector. The model aims at better understanding and analysing market trends. It is a comprehensive representation of EU powertrain technology transition, at member state level, and includes interactions and feedbacks between major stakeholders influencing the evolution of the market shares. The model seeks to integrate a wider range of market, industry and technology dynamics compared to other known models to date. Five scenarios are conducted to explore the dynamics of the powertrain transitions under different oil prices, GDP growth, learning rates, purchase subsidies and EU emission targets. The findings illustrate that the developed model is able to give strategic insights to authorities, manufacturers and infrastructure providers regarding their respective decisions, policies and challenges in relation to medium and long-term trends in the EU road transport sector. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.