Long-range forecasting of suspended sediment


Pektas A. O. , Cigizoglu H. K.

HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, vol.62, no.14, pp.2415-2425, 2017 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 62 Issue: 14
  • Publication Date: 2017
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/02626667.2017.1383607
  • Title of Journal : HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
  • Page Numbers: pp.2415-2425

Abstract

This study examines the employment of two methods, multiple linear regression (MLR) and an artificial neural network (ANN), for multistep ahead forecasting of suspended sediment. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is considered for one-step ahead forecasting of sediment series in order to provide a comparison with the MLR and ANN methods. For one-and two-step ahead forecasting, the ANN model performance is superior to that of the MLR model. For longer ranges, MLR models provide better accuracy, but there is an important assumption violation. The Durbin-Watson statistics of the MLR models show a noticeable decrease from 1.3 to 0.5, indicating that the residuals are not dependent over time. The scatterplots of the three methods (MLR, ARIMA and ANN) for one-step ahead forecasting for the validation period illustrate close fits with the regression line, with the ANN configuration having a slightly higher R-2 value.