Applying evidential reasoning extended SPAR-H modelling to analyse human reliability on crude oil tanker cargo operation

Elidolu G., Il Ahn S., Ilke Sezer S., Emek Kurt R., Akyüz E., Gardoni P.

Safety Science, vol.164, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 164
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106169
  • Journal Name: Safety Science
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, EMBASE, Environment Index, INSPEC, Metadex, Psycinfo, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Cargo operation, Crude oil tanker, Evidential reasoning, Human reliability, Maritime safety, SPAR-H
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Human reliability analysis is essential to predict ship crew performance at the operation level for critical shipboard operations which pose a high risk. Specifically, the crew who are working on tanker ships has to be extra vigilant against the hazardous nature of the cargo. This paper performs a detailed human reliability analysis step by step for cargo discharging operations in crude oil tankers. To achieve this purpose, a Standardised Plant Analysis Risk Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) extended by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is used to systematically predict the probability of human errors. While SPAR-H provides a robust tool to calculate human error probability simultaneously, the ER fuses raters’ opinions in decision-making. The finding of the research shows that the overall human reliability is found at 6.52E-01 for cargo discharging operations in crude oil tankers. Besides its practical contributions to maritime crude oil transportation, the proposed approach presents how a comprehensive insight into human reliability can be gained.