Scenario analysis using Bayesian networks: A case study in energy sector

Cinar D., Kayakutlu G.

KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS, cilt.23, sa.3, ss.267-276, 2010 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 23 Sayı: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2010
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.knosys.2010.01.009
  • Dergi Adı: KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.267-276
  • İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This paper provides a general overview of creating scenarios for energy policies using Bayesian Network (BN) models. BN is a useful tool to analyze the complex structures, which allows observation of the current structure and basic consequences of any strategic change. This research will propose a decision model that will support the researchers in forecasting and scenario analysis fields. The proposed model will be implemented in a case study for Turkey. The choice of the case is based on complexities of a renewable energy resource rich country. Turkey is a heavy energy importer discussing new investments. Domestic resources could be evaluated under different scenarios aiming the sustainability. Achievements of this study will open a new vision for the decision makers in energy sector. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V.