Scenario analysis using Bayesian networks: A case study in energy sector

Cinar D., Kayakutlu G.

KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS, vol.23, no.3, pp.267-276, 2010 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 23 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2010
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.knosys.2010.01.009
  • Journal Name: KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.267-276
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This paper provides a general overview of creating scenarios for energy policies using Bayesian Network (BN) models. BN is a useful tool to analyze the complex structures, which allows observation of the current structure and basic consequences of any strategic change. This research will propose a decision model that will support the researchers in forecasting and scenario analysis fields. The proposed model will be implemented in a case study for Turkey. The choice of the case is based on complexities of a renewable energy resource rich country. Turkey is a heavy energy importer discussing new investments. Domestic resources could be evaluated under different scenarios aiming the sustainability. Achievements of this study will open a new vision for the decision makers in energy sector. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V.