Tri-generation investment analysis using Bayesian network: A case study


Bulut K., Kayakutlu G. , Daim T.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GREEN ENERGY, vol.15, no.5, pp.347-357, 2018 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 15 Issue: 5
  • Publication Date: 2018
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/15435075.2018.1454321
  • Title of Journal : INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GREEN ENERGY
  • Page Numbers: pp.347-357

Abstract

The increasing energy demand, increasing energy dependency, energy supply security, and environmental concerns have become a part of business policies since COP21 agreements in Paris, 2015. Combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP or tri-generation) systems play an important role in paying the necessary attention to these policies. Tri-generation investment is a complex decision with hybrid use of energy resources. This article aims to reduce the complexity of this decision by the use of Bayesian belief networks in pre-investment stage of tri-generation investment project cycle. The proposed model gives an insight into decision analysis and helps the decision-makers either generate or purchase from it in order to meet the energy demand with different scenarios. The model is studied for a university case. The investment decision for a CCHP (tri-generation) system will be discussed as an alternative for purchasing the electricity and natural gas from the national grids.