Changes in Precipitation extremesin high Resolution Simulations of COSMO-CLM driven by MPI-ESM-LR under RCP8.5 scenarios over Western Turkey


Ünal Y., Sonuç C.

COSMO/CLM/ICON/ART User Seminar, Offenbach, Germany, 6 - 08 March 2017, pp.28

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Summary Text
  • City: Offenbach
  • Country: Germany
  • Page Numbers: pp.28
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

The Mediterranean region is one of the hot spots which the effects of climate change have already been observed and expected to continue in the future projections. As a part of ERAfrica project, the performance of COSMO-CLM (CCLM) 5.0 coupled with a global model MPI-ESMLR are evaluated to simulate the climate over Turkey, and the projected impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes over western part of Turkey are investigated for RCP8.5 emission scenario. This work has been also supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) with a project number 114Y047. The 0.44◦ resolution simulations of CCLM for reference period, which covers the time period of 1971-2005, are compared with precipitation data of CRU. On the other hand, the 0.11◦ resolution model precipitation results are compared with station observations provided from Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS). Extreme precipitation climate indices such as Rx1day, Rx5day, R10mm, R20mm, CDD, CWD and R95p are evaluated for the reference period. Moreover, the changes in climate indices under RCP8.5 scenario are calculated for the future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 with respect to reference period.