Simulating Land-Cover Change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia

Fox J., VOGLER J. B., Şen Ö. L., GIAMBELLUCA T. W., Ziegler A. D.

ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, vol.49, no.5, pp.968-979, 2012 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 49 Issue: 5
  • Publication Date: 2012
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s00267-012-9828-3
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.968-979
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes


We used the conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE-s) model to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in Montane mainland southeast Asia (MMSEA), a region in the midst of transformation due to rapid intensification of agriculture and expansion of regional trade markets. Simulated changes affected approximately 10 % of the MMSEA landscape between 2001 and 2025 and 16 % between 2001 and 2050. Roughly 9 % of the current vegetation, which consists of native species of trees, shrubs, and grasses, is projected to be replaced by tree plantations, tea, and other evergreen shrubs during the 50 years period. Importantly, 4 % of this transition is expected to be due to the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), a tree plantation crop that may have important implications for local-to-regional scale hydrology because of its potentially high water consumption in the dry season.