Time Series Forecasting Utilizing Automated Machine Learning (AutoML): A Comparative Analysis Study on Diverse Datasets


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Westergaard G., Erden U., Mateo O. A., Lampo S. M., Akıncı T. Ç., Topsakal O.

Information (Switzerland), vol.15, no.1, 2024 (ESCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 15 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2024
  • Doi Number: 10.3390/info15010039
  • Journal Name: Information (Switzerland)
  • Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, INSPEC, Library, Information Science & Technology Abstracts (LISTA), Metadex, Directory of Open Access Journals, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Auto-Sklearn, AutoGluon, AutoML, Bitcoin, COVID-19, cryptocurrency, forecasting, machine learning, PyCaret, time series, weather
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) tools are revolutionizing the field of machine learning by significantly reducing the need for deep computer science expertise. Designed to make ML more accessible, they enable users to build high-performing models without extensive technical knowledge. This study delves into these tools in the context of time series analysis, which is essential for forecasting future trends from historical data. We evaluate three prominent AutoML tools—AutoGluon, Auto-Sklearn, and PyCaret—across various metrics, employing diverse datasets that include Bitcoin and COVID-19 data. The results reveal that the performance of each tool is highly dependent on the specific dataset and its ability to manage the complexities of time series data. This thorough investigation not only demonstrates the strengths and limitations of each AutoML tool but also highlights the criticality of dataset-specific considerations in time series analysis. Offering valuable insights for both practitioners and researchers, this study emphasizes the ongoing need for research and development in this specialized area. It aims to serve as a reference for organizations dealing with time series datasets and a guiding framework for future academic research in enhancing the application of AutoML tools for time series forecasting and analysis.