Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in Anatolia

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Koc D. E., Dalfes H. N., Avci M.

JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY-COGRAFYA DERGISI, sa.44, ss.81-95, 2022 (ESCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2022
  • Doi Numarası: 10.26650/jgeog2022-974433
  • Dergi Adı: JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY-COGRAFYA DERGISI
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.81-95
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Climate change, Species Distribution Model, Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, Juniperus drupacea, Turkey, CLIMATE-CHANGE, LAKE VAN, POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION, SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS, EASTERN ANATOLIA, GLACIAL REFUGIA, POLLEN RECORD, HUMAN IMPACT, MAXENT, BIOGEOGRAPHY
  • İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study aims to estimate the responses of Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), present and future climate changes in Anatolia. For this purpose, the temporal and spatial distributions of these conifer species were modeled, based on global climate change scenarios. Accordingly, the temporal and spatial distributions of the studied species are predicted and back-projected using fossil pollen data, occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic variables collected from the WorldClim database. The principal component analysis (PCA) method was applied to these variables, resulting in the identification of 8 variables for the species distribution model. Past and future climate information is based on CCSM4 and RCP 8.5 scenario was assumed for future projections. Furthermore, both MaxEnt 3.4.1 and ArcGIS 10.5 were utilized to develop the models.