Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in Anatolia


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Koc D. E. , Dalfes H. N. , Avci M.

JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY-COGRAFYA DERGISI, no.44, pp.81-95, 2022 (ESCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.26650/jgeog2022-974433
  • Journal Name: JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY-COGRAFYA DERGISI
  • Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.81-95
  • Keywords: Climate change, Species Distribution Model, Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, Juniperus drupacea, Turkey, CLIMATE-CHANGE, LAKE VAN, POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION, SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS, EASTERN ANATOLIA, GLACIAL REFUGIA, POLLEN RECORD, HUMAN IMPACT, MAXENT, BIOGEOGRAPHY
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the responses of Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), present and future climate changes in Anatolia. For this purpose, the temporal and spatial distributions of these conifer species were modeled, based on global climate change scenarios. Accordingly, the temporal and spatial distributions of the studied species are predicted and back-projected using fossil pollen data, occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic variables collected from the WorldClim database. The principal component analysis (PCA) method was applied to these variables, resulting in the identification of 8 variables for the species distribution model. Past and future climate information is based on CCSM4 and RCP 8.5 scenario was assumed for future projections. Furthermore, both MaxEnt 3.4.1 and ArcGIS 10.5 were utilized to develop the models.