Weighted Cumulative Belief Degree Approach for Project Portfolio Selection

Zorluoglu O. S., Kabale Ö.

GROUP DECISION AND NEGOTIATION, vol.29, no.4, pp.679-722, 2020 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 29 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s10726-020-09673-3
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, Political Science Complete, Psycinfo, Sociological abstracts, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.679-722
  • Keywords: Group decision making, IT, business development project portfolio selection, Hierarchical approach, Cumulative belief degree, GROUP DECISION-MAKING, MODEL, INFRASTRUCTURE, METHODOLOGY, CONSTRUCTION, INFORMATION, FRAMEWORK
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Selecting a portfolio of projects is essential for organizations to sustain and develop their businesses and increase profitability. While creating a suitable portfolio, the opinions of the employees in the organization's hierarchy about alternative projects can improve the decision process. In this paper, we structure the information technology/business development (IT/BD) project portfolio selection problem as a hierarchical group decision-making setting. Our aim is to process information provided from a large number of employees participating in the decision-making process and prevent the dominance of a single decision maker or biases due to irrelevant evaluations. A weighted cumulative belief degree approach is proposed for aggregating the evaluations of the decision makers and experts on the projects and on the importance weights of the criteria. We conduct a real-life case study in an organization in the automotive sector. The application shows that the proposed approach can enable getting evaluations from a large organization with less time and provides diverse results based on the several satisfaction levels.