Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey

Ulengin F., Ozaydin O., ULENGIN B., KOPP A., Onsel S., Kabak Ö., ...Daha Fazla

TRANSPORT POLICY, cilt.29, ss.227-235, 2013 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 29
  • Basım Tarihi: 2013
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.07.002
  • Dergi Adı: TRANSPORT POLICY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.227-235
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Gravity-based model, Scenario analysis, Transport demand forecast, Turkey, MODELS
  • İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

In this research, an integrated gravity-based model was built, and a scenario analysis was conducted to project the demand levels for routes related to the highway projects suggested in TINA-Turkey. The gravity-based model was used to perform a disaggregated analysis to estimate the demand levels that will occur on the routes which are planned to be improved in specific regions of Turkey from now until 2020. During the scenario development phase for these gravity-based models, the growth rate of Turkeys GDP, as estimated by the World Bank from now until 2017, was used as the baseline scenario. Besides, it is assumed that the gross value added (GVA) of the origin and destination regions of the selected routes will show a pattern similar to GDP growth rates. Based on the estimated GDP values, and the projected GVA growth rates, the demand for each selected route was projected and found that the demand level for some of these road projects is expected to be very low, and hence additional measures would be needed to make these investments worthwhile. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.