Research Information System
Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems 2022, İstanbul, Turkey, 19 July 2022, no.52, pp.1-8
The
amount of daily water demanded by individuals is used as a basic parameter in
the design of infrastructure systems. The purpose of this study is to examine
the daily average water consumption per capita (WCPC) values used as
infrastructure basic design parameters and suggested by Turkish Standards
across Turkey. Accordingly, one of the aims of this study is to reveal how
accurately these standards predict WCPC values, the other one is to create a
model predicting better with low error rate and trend-reflecting values. WCPC
belonging to 2018 for 30 Turkish cities was introduced. According to this
research study, the average WCPC was found out to be 126.6 liters across the
country and it ranges from 67.7 to 208 liters. The average loss percent of
discharge of the cities across the country is 42% while it ranges from 23% to 71%.
10 parameters for each city that had the potential to influence water consumption
are the following; average temperature, maximum temperature, average precipitation,
humidity, water price, population, population density, sunshine duration,
tourism intensity, and industry level. Since the problem is complex, the fuzzy
logic method, which is a rule-based algorithm from the soft computing methods,
was preferred and found suitable on the stage of creating the predictor model.
The fuzzy model was formed with an expert perspective approach. The accuracy of
the values proposed by the fuzzy model and the standards were measured and
compared with R2 and RMSE parameters. The coefficient of
determination of Altınbilek’s values, 2013 Provincial Bank, which are Turkish
Standards, and the fuzzy model were found out as -4.77, -0.55, and 0.41,
respectively. The poor estimation ability of the standards has revealed the
need for the model that is able to make better estimation and measurement results
proved the necessity of future examination of the predictions.