Fragility-based rapid earthquake loss assessment of precast RC buildings in the Marmara region

Yeşilyurt A., Cetindemir O., Akcan S. O., Zulfikar A. C.

Structural Engineering and Mechanics, vol.88, no.1, pp.13-23, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 88 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.12989/sem.2023.88.1.013
  • Journal Name: Structural Engineering and Mechanics
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Aerospace Database, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Metadex, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.13-23
  • Keywords: consequence models, fragility curves, hazard analysis, loss functions, precast buildings
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Seismic risk assessment studies are one of the most crucial instruments for mitigating casualties and economic losses. This work utilizes fragility curves to evaluate the seismic risk of single-story precast buildings, which are generally favored in Marmara’s organized industrial zones. First, the precast building stock in the region has been categorized into nine sub-classes. Then, seven locations in the Marmara region with a high concentration of industrial activities are considered. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments were conducted for both the soil-dependent and soil-independent scenarios. Subsequently, damage analysis was performed based on the structural capacity and mean fragility curves. Considering four different consequence models, 630 sub-class-specific loss curves for buildings were obtained. In the current study, it has been determined that the consequence model has a significant impact on the loss curves, hence, average loss curves were computed for each case investigated. In light of the acquired results, it was found that the loss ratio values obtained at different locations within the same region show significant variation. In addition, it was observed that the structural damage states change from serviceable to repairable or repairable to unrepairable. Within the scope of the study, 126 average loss functions were presented that could be easily used by non-experts in earthquake engineering, regardless of structural analysis. These functions, which offer loss ratios for varying hazard levels, are valuable outputs that allow preliminary risk assessment in the region and yield sensible outcomes for insurance activities.