Small sample estimation of the variance of time-averages in climatic time series


Sen Z.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, cilt.18, ss.1725-1732, 1998 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 18 Konu: 15
  • Basım Tarihi: 1998
  • Dergi Adı: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1725-1732

Özet

Estimations of the time-average variance for meteorological time series play a central role in climatic studies. They depend on the finite sample length and the correlation structure of the climatic time series. A general equation for these estimations is derived theoretically for autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process. Comparisons with a first-order Markov, moving average and independent processes are presented with charts for determining equivalent independent process effective number by considering a certain level of relative error percentage. Illustrative examples are given for the application of time-average variance in detecting possible climatic trends. (C) 1998 Royal Meteorological Society.