Small sample estimation of the variance of time-averages in climatic time series

Sen Z.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, vol.18, no.15, pp.1725-1732, 1998 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 18 Issue: 15
  • Publication Date: 1998
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.1725-1732
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: No


Estimations of the time-average variance for meteorological time series play a central role in climatic studies. They depend on the finite sample length and the correlation structure of the climatic time series. A general equation for these estimations is derived theoretically for autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process. Comparisons with a first-order Markov, moving average and independent processes are presented with charts for determining equivalent independent process effective number by considering a certain level of relative error percentage. Illustrative examples are given for the application of time-average variance in detecting possible climatic trends. (C) 1998 Royal Meteorological Society.