Comparison of different ANN techniques in river flow prediction

Kisi O., Cigizoglu H. K.

CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS, vol.24, no.3, pp.211-231, 2007 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier


Forecasts of future events are required in many of the activities associated with the planning and operation of the components of a water resource system. For the hydrologic component, there is a need for both short- and long-term forecasts of river flow events in order to optimize the system or to plan for future expansion or reduction. This paper presents the comparison of different artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in short- and long-term continuous and intermittent daily streamflow forecasting. The studies in modelling the intermittent series are quite limited because of the complexity of fitting models in to these series. The available conventional models necessitate the adjustment of numerous parameters for calibration. Three different ANN techniques, namely, feed-forward back propagation (FFBP), generalized regression neural networks, and radial basis function-based neural networks (RBF) are applied to continuous and intermittent river flow data of two Turkish rivers for short-range and long-range forecasting studies. The k-fold partitioning method is employed for preparing the ANN training data successfully. In general, the forecasting performance of RBF is found to be superior to the other two ANN techniques and a time series model in terms of the selected performance criteria. It was observed that the FFBP method had some drawbacks such as a local minima problem and negative flow generation.