Investigating the extrapolation performance of neural network models in suspended sediment data

Pektas A. O., Cigizoglu H. K.

HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, vol.62, no.10, pp.1694-1703, 2017 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier


Suspended sediment modelling is a quite significant issue in hydrology. The prediction of suspended sediment has taken the attention of several scientists in water resources. With extrapolation, the forecasting ability of the employed forecasting model beyond the calibration range is investigated. In the present study, different smoothing parameters are used to differentiate the kurtosis of the local critical points (local minima and maxima). The two models used are an artificial neural network (ANN) model and a multiple linear regression (MLR) model for prediction in order to examine the model extrapolation ability. The ANN model provides closer estimations to the observed peaks, being higher than the corresponding MLR ones. For the local minima, the ANN predictions are higher than the MLR predictions. As there are limited local points, all the remaining ANN predictions are lower than the MLR ones except for one point.