Crossing trend analysis methodology and application for Turkish rainfall records

Sen Z.

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, vol.131, pp.285-293, 2018 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 131
  • Publication Date: 2018
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s00704-016-1980-x
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.285-293
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Trend analyses are the necessary tools for depicting possible general increase or decrease in a given time series. There are many versions of trend identification methodologies such as the Mann-Kendall trend test, Spearman's tau, Sen's slope, regression line, and Aen's innovative trend analysis. The literature has many papers about the use, cons and pros, and comparisons of these methodologies. In this paper, a completely new approach is proposed based on the crossing properties of a time series. It is suggested that the suitable trend from the centroid of the given time series should have the maximum number of crossings (total number of up-crossings or down-crossings). This approach is applicable whether the time series has dependent or independent structure and also without any dependence on the type of the probability distribution function. The validity of this method is presented through extensive Monte Carlo simulation technique and its comparison with other existing trend identification methodologies. The application of the methodology is presented for a set of annual daily extreme rainfall time series from different parts of Turkey and they have physically independent structure.