72HR FORECAST OF WIND POWER IN MANISA, TURKEY BY USING THE WRF MODEL COUPLED TO WINDSIM


Efe B. , Unal E., Mentes S., Ozdemir T., Ünal Y. , Barutcu B. , ...More

1st International Conference on Renewable Energy Research and Applications (ICRERA), Nagasaki, Japan, 11 - 14 November 2012 identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • City: Nagasaki
  • Country: Japan

Abstract

Wind power forecasting has recently become important to fulfill the increasing demand on energy usage. Two main approaches are applied to the wind power forecasting which can vary from 6 hours to 48 hours. One way is to model the atmosphere dynamically and the other method is to analyze wind speed and direction statistically. Although dynamical models forecast better than statistical models, since the former solves the problem physically, statistical models can be preferable when short term forecasting is needed due to their quick response time. Most of the currently available wind power forecasting systems analyzes the effect of wind field on wind power based on numerical weather prediction models. However, the resolution of these models is not sufficient enough when the scale of the turbines on the wind farms is considered. It is possible to overcome this problem by using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models, which can provide both linear and nonlinear solutions on the turbine scale in terms of both wind speed and wind power forecasting.