A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey

Sahin S. O., Ulengin F., Ulengin B.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, cilt.175, sa.2, ss.1268-1284, 2006 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 175 Sayı: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2006
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036
  • Dergi Adı: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1268-1284
  • İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM's) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.