A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey

Sahin, Sule; Ulengin, Fusun; Ulengin, Burc

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036

A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey

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Sahin S. O., Ulengin F., Ulengin B.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, vol.175, no.2, pp.1268-1284, 2006 (SCI-Expanded)

Publication Type: Article / Article
Volume: 175 Issue: 2
Publication Date: 2006
Doi Number: 10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036
Journal Name: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
Page Numbers: pp.1268-1284
Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: No

Abstract

This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM's) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.