A Forecasting Study of Covid-19 Epidemic: Turkey Case


GÜRCAN Ö. F., Beyca Ö. F., Atici U., Er O.

4th International Conference on Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems (INFUS), Bornova, Turkey, 19 - 21 July 2022, vol.505, pp.263-271 identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Volume: 505
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/978-3-031-09176-6_31
  • City: Bornova
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.263-271
  • Keywords: Covid-19, Forecasting, Random forest regression
  • Istanbul Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

The Coronavirus (Covid-19) is an infectious disease and has spread over the 170 countries. The pandemic brings new challenges to the research community. Many measures are taken by countries and developed vaccines limit the spread of pandemic. Globally, there have been more than 490 million confirmed case of Covid-19, and 6.1 million deaths reported World Health Organization as of April 4, 2022. Disease modelling has critical policy impact on Covid-19. Forecasting is one of the key purposes of epidemic modelling. It will not only help the governments but also, the medical practitioners to know the future trajectory of the spread, which might help them with the best possible treatments, precautionary measures and protections. This study makes a forecasting of Covid-19 for Turkey. Specifically, a multi-step forecasting model is proposed. Additionally, the effect of some measures taken against Covid-19 are analyzed. The study period covers 11 March 2020 - 16 March 2022 and number of confirmed cases is selected as indicator. A summary information is given about the course of the pandemic in Turkey and the fight against Covid-19.